A tornadic supercell initiated off of a cold front in western Ohio during the evening of 14 March 2024 and caused EF3 damage as well as three fatalities. The tornado had a pathlength of 49.9 km, a duration of 47 minutes, and a width of 1000 yards. The large-scale environment was characterized by a minor shortwave trough moving east across the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley, with westerly flow dominating at all levels above 850 mb. From 850 mb to the surface, flow was slightly backed to southerly, which may be in response to the passing shortwave, as well as cooler more stable air modified by outflow due to a morning QLCS passage. Otherwise, dewpoints were near 60F during the time of significant tornadogenesis, and temperatures were near 70F, with steep lapse rates aiding in MLCAPE values from 500 to 1000 J/kg per RAP forecast soundings. The tornado pathlength/duration algorithms I am evaluating produced a max predicted pathlength forecast of 44.3 km and max duration of 31.2 minutes, which were around 5 km and 16 minutes lower than what was observed, but still useful guidance in my opinion, especially considering that the RAP sounding used to calculate those values was 10's of km south of the tornadic storm.
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Radar reflectivity of the killer tornadic storm in western Ohio that occurred during the evening of 14 March 2024.
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Base velocity of the killer tornadic circulation that occurred in western Ohio during the evening of 14 March 2024.
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250 mb wind and streamlines valid 00Z 15 March 2024.
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Surface observations with 60F dewpoint contour in green, frontal boundary in blue, and surface low pressure in red valid during the time of the killer tornadic storm in western Ohio. Data is courtesy of the SPC.
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RAP model forecast sounding valid at Dayton, Ohio during the time of the killer tornadic storm.
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RAP model forecast hodograph with tornado pathlength and duration output provided in the bottom left during the time of the killer tornadic storm. RAP point sounding is taken from Dayton, Ohio.
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